Friday, August 14, 2009

Continued success?

As I sit in my room watching the Big ten Network's coverage of Penn State's fall camp, it brings to mind these questions: Can they win the Big Ten? Can they beat Ohio State? How will they replace 4 starting DBs who had a combined 117 starts for the Nittany Lions? Can they make a run at the national title?

Well, let's start with the DB problem, since that will be a huge factor in the rest of the answers.
Penn State is replacing one of the nation's most experienced defensive backfields. Not something you want to do when Ohio State is on your schedule. Whether it's passing or rushing, OSU gets into the secondary. In last year's Rose Bowl, Mark Sanchez pretty much had his way with the Lions' DBs, throwing for 4 TDs. Terrell Pryor is no Mark Sanchez, but the kid isn't average. Lucky for JoePa, PSU has 3 games that should be a nice warmup before Big Ten play starts (Akron, Syracuse, and Temple all visit Happy Valley before Iowa rolls into town). Watching the practice footage, I'm impressed with how the new secondary is adjusting. So far, through 40 minutes, they've jumped 5 routes, and picked off 2 of those. Of course Darryl Clark hasn't taking as many reps, but still, they're moving to the ball. The newbies cover well in man, but zone is an area that could use some improvement. The safeties (I'm lacking in names because the Big Ten Network is on mute so I can think) have to learn to respect their zones downfield. The corners roll well with the play, but need to be more consistent.
They should be ok until Iowa comes into Beaver Stadium. That will be their first real test (unless Syracuse has done some serious improving with Greg Paulus running the offense).

I'll combine the first two questions here: Can they beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten?
Looking at the PSU and OSU schedules, I can almost promise you that OSU will come in at 9-1 (USC visits Columbus in week 2, sorry Buckeyes) and PSU will probably come in unbeaten, if they can get past Iowa. If Terrell Pryor plays to his ability, and the OSU defense plays like Tressel lit a fire under them, as he usually does, then I think it could be a great game. Penn State's defense should be adjusted by then, and Darryl Clark and Evan Royster should be firing on all cylinders-barring any injuries. Penn State has an inexperienced group of recievers, but they too should have ample time to adjust for this game.
I'm not really answering the question, but I can just about guarantee that the winner of this game wins the Big Ten and plays USC in the Rose Bowl, unless of course USC plays Florida for the title. Either way, one of these two teams is going to the Rose Bowl.

Now, can they make a run at the BCS crown?
Yes. No doubt about it they can if they beat Ohio State. But more than likely, with the way the BSC (yes, that's B S C)works, an undefeated Penn State will not get the nod over an undefeated USC. Penn State's non-conference schedule isn't as strong as the Trojan's even though USC's best non-conference opponent is in fact the Buckeyes.

I'll post my BCS bowl projections in a little while.

Keep your shoulders low and your legs driving fans.

Jay

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